Estimating the probability that a simulated system will be the best

Consider a stochastic simulation experiment consisting of v independent vector replications consisting of an observation from each of k independent systems. Typical system comparisons are based on mean (long‐run) performance. However, the probability that a system will actually be the best is sometimes more relevant, and can provide a very different perspective than the systems' means. Empirically, we select one system as the best performer (i.e., it wins) on each replication. Each system has an unknown constant probability of winning on any replication and the numbers of wins for the individual systems follow a multinomial distribution. Procedures exist for selecting the system with the largest probability of being the best. This paper addresses the companion problem of estimating the probability that each system will be the best. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the multinomial cell probabilities for a set of v vector replications across k systems are well known. We use these same v vector replications to form v^k unique vectors (termed pseudo‐replications) that contain one observation from each system and develop estimators based on AVC (All Vector Comparisons). In other words, we compare every observation from each system with every combination of observations from the remaining systems and note the best performer in each pseudo‐replication. AVC provides lower variance estimators of the probability that each system will be the best than the MLEs. We also derive confidence intervals for the AVC point estimators, present a portion of an extensive empirical evaluation and provide a realistic example. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 341–358, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10019     

Warranty design under buyer and seller risk aversion

This paper provides a framework in which warranty policies for non-repairable items can be evaluated according to risk preferences of both buyers and sellers. In particular, a warranty price schedule is established such that sellers are indifferent among the policies. Given this schedule, a buyer's response is expressed by selecting the price-warranty combination that minimizes disutility. Within this framework, a warranty can be viewed as an instrumet of risk management that can induce more sales and greater profitability. For given utility functions, analytical results for the development of a price schedule are developed. Numerical results illustrate the substitution effects between warranty terms, prices, and risk parameters.     

纳米级定位的简单化设计——采用滚珠球轴承的扭轮摩擦传动

作者在前面的文章中报导了扭轮摩擦传动能实现亚纳米级的定位分辨率。然而,这套装置在结构上的复杂之处就是在于采用了静压轴承支撑扭轮。本文指出了扭轮摩擦传动在结构上如何可以简化为采用球轴承支撑扭轮。在简化之后,实验表明定位分辨率小于1纳米。本文得出结论,采用球轴承的扭轮摩擦传动对于在洁净环境下要求实现纳米级定位的制造过程变得更为方便,而且可以取代滚珠丝杠以及常规摩擦传动方式。     

塑性状态下光学及电子镜面的亚纳米级精密磨削

本文讲述了由PC机控制的多用途超精机床(MPUMT)的设计及光学镜平滑表面的加工。已研制出的机床可用于磨削、切削、研磨或抛光塑性状态下的硬脆材料。作为建立新的加工系统的关键部分,采用了大型磁致伸缩调节器(GMA),在没有放大器元件的情况下,它具有大功率的输出和大于压电陶瓷调节器几倍的纳米级的位移。切削DOC的深度和控制塑性状态过程的微塑性区域能够被调节器设置为具有高于1nm的精度,并能用金刚石磨削砂轮研磨。在当前研究中所用到的镜为多晶体、非晶体,也有加固玻璃。磨削实验的结果表明,已研制出来的超精机床能够实现对塑性状态下的玻璃和陶瓷材料的加工。材料特性参数和微裂纹之间的关系已被检测到,适用于大多数被研究玻璃的脆性到塑性磨削方式的转换已经确定。运用AFM、SEM和ZYGO对磨削表面进行了分析,例如BK7和TRC5(新材料;加固玻璃)的磨削表面分别具Ra=0.15nm和Ra=0.32nm的表面粗糙度。     

A note on allocating jobs to two machines

A recent article in this journal by Mehta, Chandrasekaran, and Emmons [1] described a dynamic programming algorithm for assigning jobs to two identical parallel processors in a way that minimizes the average delay of these jobs. Their problem has a constraint on the sequence of the jobs such that any group of jobs assigned to a processor must be processed in the order of the sequence. This note has two purposes. First, we wish to point out a relationship between this work and some prior work [2]. Second, we wish to point out that Mehta, Chandrasekaran, and Emmons formulation, slightly generalized, can be used to find the optimum assignment of jobs to two machines in a more general class of problems than they considered including a subclass in which the jobs are not constrained to be processed in a given sequence.     

Project scheduling: The effects of problem structure on heuristic performance

Individual characteristics of multiple-constrained resource, project scheduling problems are examined in an attempt to predict the solution obtainable with heuristic methods. Difficulties encountered in performing this type of research are described, and several multiple regression models are developed for predicting heuristic performance. Both single and multiple project data are examined, and results reported demonstrate the efficacy of determining beforehand the method used for problem solution.     

Optimal inventory policy when stockouts alter demand

An inventory model in which future demand is affected by stockouts has been considered recently by B. L. Schwartz. Some generalizations of Schwartz's model are presented in this paper and properties of the optimal policies are determined. In the case of deterministic demand, a set-up cost is included and a mixture of backlogged and nonbacklogged orders is allowed during stockout. It is proved that the optimal policy entails either no stockout or continual stockout, depending on the values of three parameters. For stochastic demand, the effect of stockouts on demand density is postulated, the resulting optimal inventory policy is discussed, and an example involving an exponential density function is then analyzed in detail.     

Linearly constrained pseudo-Newton method

Must Newton-type methods for linearly constrained optimization be either of the modified Newton or quasi-Newton variety? The contention of this paper is that explicity recomputing part of the projected Hessian may be superior to both approaches. A computational comparison with MINOS is presented.